Session outline
Solid Earth Sciences(S)
Session Sub Category Seismology(SS)
Session ID S-SS03
Title New frontiers in earthquake statistics, physics-based earthquake forecasting, and earthquake model testing
Short title Earthquake Predictability (CSEP-Japan)
Convener Name Hiroshi Tsuruoka
Affiliation Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ.
Co-convener 1. Name Naoshi Hirata
Affiliation Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo
Co-convener 2. Name Danijel Schorlemmer
Affiliation GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
Co-convener 3. Name Matt Gerstenberger
Affiliation GNS Science (New Zealand)
International Symposium 'International Symposium' in addition to Scientific session.
Language English
Scope Earthquake statistics, providing major contributions to earthquake forecast and hazard models, is moving towards combinations with physics-based models. Coulomb-based and rate and state-based models attempt to better describe stress and activity evolution for better forecasting seismicity rates. Global strain rates are combined with activity rates to improve long term forecasts.

Simultaneously, hazard models are nowadays incorporating more earthquake statistics than simple smoothed seismicity models for background seismicity. They are becoming increasingly time-dependent on various time scales beyond the established ETAS model. Statistics are included to describe temporal as well as spatial earthquake activity.

These developments are creating new challenges for model testing as more time scales and more complex models need to be implemented in the testing centers of the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability. These testing centers (in California, Japan, New Zealand, and Europe) operate forecasting experiments in various regions of the world with more than 400 models under continuous testing.

We invite contributions about new statistical observations of earthquake occurrence, new earthquake forecast models (statistical or physics-based or combinations thereof), new ideas about how earthquake statistics can be used to improve seismic hazard assessment, and, last but not least, new or improved earthquake forecast testing metrics and procedures.
Type of presentation Oral and Poster presentation
Invited papers David Jackson (University of California Los Angeles)
Yosihiko Ogata (The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Research Organization of Information and Systems)
Dahmen Karin (Department of Physics, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign)
Thessa Tormann (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)